Bulletproof

John Friel

Where has all our boldness gone?

A couple of decades ago, pundits chided the green industries for being too cautious. We’re not making our mistakes fast enough! they said.

Dr. Allan Armitage took that message farther, preaching, “It doesn’t matter if we shoot ourselves in the foot. What’s important is how fast we reload!”

Business gurus devoured an ancient Chinese military manual, Sun-Tzu’s “The Art of War.” This space quoted Mario Andretti: “If everything is under control, you’re going too slow.”

That was then.

By 2010, the tone had changed. In a remarkably short time we seemed to have gone from bullish to bearish. At a breeders’ conference at Longwood Gardens, Dr. Armitage decried the rapid pace of new plant introductions and patents. His former University of Georgia colleague, Dr. Michael Dirr, concurred, asking, “How do we slow down the plant patent freight train?” Pretty alarming talk from two industry icons whose careers and reputations relied heavily on new plant introductions.

What happened? What changed?

Life happened. Rampant expansion stopped happening. The building bubble burst and a recession happened. Nurseries vanished. Margins were squeezed wafer thin in the vise of rising costs vs. stagnant prices.

With a few notable exceptions, trade shows shrank and even ceased to exist. Warrior quotes gave way to a wry corner-of-the-mouth quip, “20% down is the new flat.”

That was then.

Now what? Things have stabilized. Growth is back. The cloud of fear and gloom that hung over trade show floors has cleared. The mood is upbeat. But there’s a sharper edge to the conversations, a fiercer competitiveness than I recall from before the plunge. Even the rosiest optimism out there is tempered with caution. Overall, though not overnight, we’ve become a more risk-averse lot.

At the New Plants Forum part of the Perennial Plant Association’s recent National Symposium, more than 30 new varieties were presented from six states and five countries. All but a few bulbs and two seed-propagated introductions will be patented and/or trademarked here, and are in line for PBR protection in Europe. So much for slowing down the train. As long as royalties carry the freight for breeders, patents will be applied for.

Shortly after that session came another titled “Are They Better—Or Just New?” Such judgments, though subjective and regional, are still worth heeding. It’s an important question. Luckily, it always answers itself, eventually.

Bad plants, or good plants that aren’t significantly better or different from the status quo, will keep plopping out of the pipeline. But inevitably, the market issues its deadliest rebuke: Meh.

Those plants’ sales will wither and die. The companies that invested thousands in launching, protecting and promoting them will either learn to hold out for really different, really superior varieties or they too will wither. Bad press = slowing sales = dwindling royalties.

Naturally, both of those sessions were well-attended. We all still want to peek into the pipeline, hoping for the next hot lick. But we’ve all been burned by the hot lick that sputtered out.

Where’s the boldness? There’s a saying among military airmen: There are bold pilots, and old pilots, but no old bold pilots. Our breeders and discoverers are still out there breaking trail for the trailing, cautious herd. Imagination and vision are very much with us; they’re just older, wiser, more bottom-line conscious.

Dr. Armitage has a new saying: “New plants are the horse under our saddle. When it stops running, so do we.” Amen.

Saddle up, cowpokes. Just don’t bet the ranch on New! alone. Reliable sellers and true improvements are our bulletproof boots. Slip them on first. GP

John Friel is marketing manager for Emerald Coast Growers and a freelance writer.