7/28/2016
“Cautiously Content”
Chris Beytes
You may have seen this phrase in
Acres Online in my Cultivate’16 post-show coverage. I can’t take credit for it; that goes to Alec Charais, marketing & communications manager for Bailey Nurseries. I was by their booth and I told him that I was trying to gauge the overall mood of the industry, and he popped out with that succinct summation of exactly what I’ve been feeling but couldn’t put into words. Growers and retailers had a good-to-great season and are looking to invest for the long-term. But they’re not getting cocky or careless. They know how tough business is and how it can turn sour at any time. Thanks, Alec!
Although it doesn’t have quite the same ring, one might turn it around—“contentedly cautious”—to better fit the chronology of the sentiment.
Growers and retailers are, for the most part, content in the wake of Spring 2016. According to my Spring Weekend Survey, the U.S. and Canada scored the season 7.1 and 7.6, respectively. That’s an improvement from previous years and also a positive trend curve. Last year, the final score was 6.9 in the U.S. and 6.9 in Canada. And 2014 was even lower, at 6.7/6.5. So while the season might not have felt really good for you, it was better overall than it’s been.
But you’re more content than those scores might reflect. How do I know? As part of my summary, I asked you to rate your entire season based on guts or sales data or any other factor. Based on 106 such scores, you rated the season 8.3 in both the U.S. and Canada— 1.2 and 0.9 points higher than the actual score. A whopping 15 of you scored your season a perfect 10. That’s 14%. Last year, 12.6% of you gave your season a 10.
Regionally speaking, some of you are tremendously optimistic. For instance, the Plains states are the most “glass half full,” as they gave a gut score of 9.0 to their season—well above the true score of 6.6.
Conversely, some of you are extremely realistic about your business. For instance, responders from the East states gave a gut score of 6.6 … just 0.1 off the actual score of 6.7. Good guessing!
In Canada, British Columbia guessed 8.0 and scored 8.0. Everyone else guessed high, including Ontario, which to me says we forget how bad the early season was as long as the season ended on a high note.
While content, you’re also cautious and more so than you used to be. Back in the good old days, the first stop a grower made after a solid spring was to his local dealer to check out the latest pickup truck or bass boat (or both, if it was a really good season). Nowadays, that same grower is more likely to be kicking the tires on a new boiler, energy curtain or flat filler. Tightening margins, challenging economy, housing market bust, Great Recessions, consolidations, terrible labor market, bankruptcies and tight banking regulations have made you wary. You know that a good season is just that—one good season. Next spring could be terrible.
But, having survived all of the above, you’re obviously in this business for the long haul and so you’re investing in tools and technologies that will help you ensure you have another good season. It might be covered shopping or a new POS system at retail or a labor-saving transport system at the production level. You’ve got money to invest, but you’re going to do it cautiously and wisely.
Which is why the smiling faces I saw on the trade show floor at Cultivate’16 were conservative smiles, wry smiles, smiles that said, “Sure, we had a good season. But it could have been better. And labor is only going to get harder to find. I’d like to chat some more, Chris, but I’ve got an appointment to check out a new seeder.”
GT