USDA Numbers Are Out … and We’re Feeling Down

Chris Beytes

Down in several ways, including total sales dollars and number of producers. That’s the news from Dr. Marvin N. Miller, our staff hortistician (and in his spare time Ball Horticultural Company’s Market Research Manager), who’s in the middle of analyzing the 2014 Floriculture Crops Summary, gathered and published by the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service.

Marvin’s first note: “The report suggests the wholesale farm-gate value (i.e., at the greenhouse door) for 2014 production and sales in the 15 states surveyed was $4.072 billion, down 4.2% from the revised $4.250 billion in 2013.”

That could mean sales were down last year compared to 2013 or it could mean prices were down. Or a combination of both.

Marvin’s second observation is more noteworthy: “The number of producers reporting in this survey was down 20.7% from the 2013 report.”

A 20% drop in producers reporting? That’s a big number! So we dug into the numbers to see where that came from. The USDA breaks out producers into six size categories. Four of those have sales less than $99,999—which we can all agree is a very, very small horticulture business. Those four categories accounted for 3,483 out of 6,115 total producers in 2013 (remember, that’s for the 15 states surveyed, not all 50 states). The number dropped to 2,339 producers in 2014—a 32.8% decline in these small growers.

The top two categories cover growers with sales of $100,000 and up. In 2013, there were 2,632. In 2014, there were 2,510—a 4.6% decline. So the growers we’ve lost were the smallest of the small.

Pictured: The 2014 U.S. Floric

ulture Production Pie
$3.634 Billion in Sales*(Finished Production only — Wholesale Value) *includes finished floriculture production (wholesale value) only for firms with $100,000 or more in wholesale (“farm gate”) sales in 15 states.USDA/NASS, Agricultural Statistics Board; Floriculture Crops - 2014 Summary

Marvin’s third note: “Production space utilized was off only 0.3%.”

So while producer numbers were down, production space wasn’t. Why? Maybe contract growing or growers leasing or otherwise taking over now-empty space. Or maybe even some new construction.

It reflects the $3.635 billion in finished plant sales for producers with $100,000 or more in wholesale sales. In a nutshell, every category has declined except, oddly enough, potted flowering plants. Here’s his analysis:

“Just over half of these sales [$1.821 billion, or 50.1%] were for bedding/garden plants, down slightly from 50.8% in 2013. Sales of annuals in 2014 were off 1.7% from the prior year, while perennial sales were off 6.8%. Overall, the total bedding/garden plant category dropped 3.3%, from $1.884 billion in 2013 to $1.821 billion in 2014.

“Sales of foliage plants dropped 2.2% from 2013 to $598.8 million in 2014.

“Sales of cut flowers dropped a similar 2.3% to $354.4 million in 2014.

“And sales of cut cultivated greens were off 4.7% from 2013 to almost $72.0 million in 2014.

“The one bright spot was a 2% increase in sales of potted flowering plants to almost $788 million in 2014.”

This is just the tip of the Floriculture Crops Summary iceberg. Stay tuned for more analysis from Dr. Miller, including full details in an upcoming GrowerTalks. GT