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Fifty Years From Now
| Chris Beytes
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>> Published Date: 1/25/2012
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 In January, I was part of a panel discussion at the National Green Centre, the annual conference of the Western Nursery & Landscape Association, on “Horticulture in 2062: What the industry will sell.” My approach to the question was to first see what changes had taken place in the previous 50 years, then extrapolate that information forward another 50 years, to see where we may wind up.
In 1962:
There were no big chains selling plants. A big grower was 10 acres. Greenhouses were run by plant lovers and farmers. Plants were retailed at “nurseries.” Florists grew their own cuts. There was little or no offshore production. Businesses were family owned. Annuals came from seed. Gardening was done in frontyard flowerbeds. We were still close to our agrarian roots. It was the backyard, not an “outdoor room.” Mom stayed home. Dad mowed the lawn. There was little environmental awareness. “Better living through chemistry” was the motto. The global economy was just starting. Customers were mainly white, middle class. View of the future: “The Jetsons.”
Today:
Chains control more than half the business. A big grower is 50-plus acres. Hard for farmers and plant lovers to succeed in business. Garden centers now sell gifts, home décor, clothing. Most cuts come from offshore, as do most cuttings. Annuals come from cuttings and seed. Consolidation hasn’t worked; businesses are still family owned. Gardeners are doing more in containers, less in the ground. We’ve forgotten our agrarian roots. “Outdoor rooms” becoming popular. Mom works. Yard maintenance is often done by paid pros. Green Movement 2.0, sustainability, is in (1.0 was in the ‘70s, when we cleaned up water and air). Customer base is more culturally diverse. Locally grown is in. View of the future: “Wall-E.”
In 2062 (IMHO*)
Technology will touch all we do. But at the same time, there’ll be more awareness and value of the environment. Benefits of plants will be more known and better marketed. Plants will be more integrated into architecture for functional benefits. Much more pressure on time and money. More pressure on resources. Consumers will have to prioritize more. There’ll be a backlash against technology. Rising offshore costs will bring more growing back to the U.S. Breeding technology will greatly expand. We’ll be even further from our agrarian roots, leading to an increased interest in the history of farming and growing. Much more attention placed on food quality, nutrition, safety and availability.
So, all that said, what will we be selling 50 years from now? Again, IMHO*:
- More plants will be produced by large growers and sold through chains: efficient and cheap, but high quality.
- More ready-to-go plants in special zero-maintenance containers.
- More functional guarantees: i.e. “Guaranteed to produce 50 lbs. of tomatoes for 50 cents a pound.”
- More plants bred to be pest and drought resistant.
- More bulletproof, long-lasting plants.
- More crazy colors and longer-lasting flowers through breeding.
- More services to install, maintain, replace plants.
- More systems for growing herbs and veggies at home, in the kitchen.
- More interest in history of gardening/farming.
- Continued interest in plants for outdoor living spaces.
- More plants in schools, offices, hospitals for health and well-being benefits.
- Better fakes, and fakes will be more accepted.
Lots of changes! But some things haven’t changed in the past 50 years, and won’t likely change in another 50 years:
- People will still like flowers and plants.
- There will still be pressure time and money.
- There will still be big boxes and IGCs (along with new sales outlets).
- Our businesses will still be primarily family owned.
- Locally grown will still dominate.
- Gardening will still be related to home ownership.
- And weather will still be the No. 1 factor affecting success or failure of our season.
In the end, I don’t anticipate a revolution. On the surface, most of our industry will look much as it does today. So will our customers. Yes, the technology we use to manage our businesses and our lives will change drastically. But gardening will still be dominated by people who love flowers and plants and who are willing to put in the effort, who don’t mind the watering and maintenance. Casual dabblers will give it a try each spring, and hopefully, we’ll hook them. And as always, the spring season, and spring weather, will still rule.
* Textspeak for “in my humble opinion.” If you didn’t know this, you must be stuck in 1962.
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